Основные идеи:
1) Short G3 (USD, EUR, JPY) vs PLN, ZAR, CLP, ILS, KRW
2) Short G3 (USD, EUR, JPY) vs SGD, MYR, INR
3) Short USD/MXN
4) Short EUR/USD at 1.36 and/or Long EUR/USD at 1.24
5) Long ADXY vs. USD, shift to short EUR through 1.36/USD
6) Long NOK/SEK
7) Long AUD, NZD, CAD vs USD, EUR, JPY
In our view, 2011 might be an even more difficult year to generate the type of divergent currency performance that enables investors to generate sizable gains relative to other asset classes. Moreover, although the fundamental environment remains constructive, the case for continued out-performance of growth-oriented currencies in the year ahead will be challenged by, in general,
- a) high valuations, even compared to improved terms-of-trade,
- b) strong ownership, including new flows from a number of sovereign wealth funds,
- c) a maturing growth cycle in a number of faster-growing emerging economies
- d) perhaps most important, rising inflation pressures in many emerging
economies that will likely lead to broader monetary tightening while the thrust of monetary policy in the developed (G4) world turns more neutral, at best. - In this context, 2011 is expected to be a year that generates a smaller divergence in relative currency returns and a year that rewards a consistent review of positioning and active trading, rather than holding positions for the entire year.
Что интересно, в прошлом, азиатские регуляторы переправляли поток ликвидности от возможности укрепления собственных валют в другие активы, создавая минипузыри.
